Thursday/2:30PM

Earl is about to make itself know along the North Carolina coast. Doesn't look like it's going to make a landfall, but tropical storm to potentially hurricane wind gusts can be expected along with blinding rainfall, and huge waves. It has weakened somewhat as expected to a CATEGORY 3 storm, but this is still a VERY DANGEROUS storm, and should not be taken lightly.The expected track is below, as you can see it is already very close to the coast of North Carolina. New HURRICANE WARNINGS have been issued for Massachusetts, with watches all the way up to the east of Maine.What may end up being so impressive about Earl, is the amount of people it will affect after it is over. The East coast is a very populated area as everyone knows, and Earl is covering just about all of it. 

















More about the weather here in Kentuckiana...

Some showers are beginning to develop in far Western Indiana, and everyone has at least a chance for some showers and isolated storms this evening through tomorrow morning. I am NOT expecting a widespread soaking rainfall like we need, but a few areas may see a much needed downpour. The weekend looks great, with highs in in the middle and upper 70's on Saturday and lower 80's on Sunday. Sunny skies will also prevail for the weekend.

DICK FRYMIRE has come out with his winter forecast for this year. I have followed him for several years now, and he is usually pretty accurate. For his forecast click... HERE

More tonight....everyone have a great afternoon and evening!

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Tuesday/11:40PM

Earl is still a category 4 at this hour, and there may still be some slight strengthening over the next 36 hours. The track has not changed, and it still looks like Earl will either make a direct landfall or come very close...

I'll have more tomorrow. Just a heads up...I will be preparing a winter forecast soon, and release it just before Thanksgiving. Everyone have a great night!


-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Tuesday/5:25PM

A HURRICANE WATCH has now been issued for Eastern North Carolina. More watches may be issued depending on the track of the storm. If anyone is making plans to travel to NC, now would be the time to rethink those plans. Below is a map so you can see the exact placement of the hurricane watch.

















It has been another hot day here in Kentuckiana, and in LOUISVILLE it will end up being the hottest summer on record! For more click... HERE

Tuesday/2:30PM

Just took a look at the 12Z NAM computer model run, and it is quite similar to the GFS, and just takes Earl off the coast, but very close to a landfall. This is going to be a close call....either way the Atlantic Coast can expect major increase in wave action, along with increased winds of at least tropical storm force....

Tropical storm Fiona will stay weak and away from land...that is one piece of good news.

More later...

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Tuesday/12:30PM

Good afternoon guys and gals. All eyes are once again on Earl, as hurricane watches are destined to be issued by the NHC for the Mid Atlantic later today. The track continues to be adjusted westward, so I am getting more and more confident that we are going to see a land-falling hurricane. That powerful cold front that I talked about yesterday has slowed down somewhat, so this will allow Earl to either come really close to the coast or make a landfall. We are still looking at a category 4 storm, and I am not expecting much strengthening due to eye wall replacements.

EARL-5 DAY FORECAST TRACK

Take a look at the GFS for hour 72. It has it even closer to the coast than it did yesterday...almost a landfall. Looks like the East Coast is going to have some rough days ahead of them. This isn't the only model we look at as weather forecasters/meteorologists, but I like the GFS during hurricane season.

More later today...

- Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner

Welcome to the New Weather Blog!

Welcome to the new weather blog everyone! This is not new to me. I have had weather blogs in the past, but haven't made enough time to continue updating them. I promise that I will update everyday and as often as I can throughout the day.

Lets get down to business!

Hurricane Earl is a nasty one folks. Category 4 currently with winds sustained at 135MPH. The big question has been, will it hit the east coast? As much as I want to give you an answer, I just can't. What I can say, however, is the faster Earl goes, the better chance it has of making a landfall. Why do I say that? Well, one heck of a cold front that spawned severe weather today in the Plains is headed eastward. As it does so, the hope is that it will turn Earl northward and eastward and away from the coast. Currently hurricane Earl is moving WNW at 14MPH.

EARL-5 DAY FORECAST TRACK

Here is the GFS for hour 96...as you can see, no landfall, but very close.

Ok now that we have Earl taken care of, lets talk about the weather across Kentuckiana....

The last few days have been hot, but we haven't experienced the humidity that we had earlier this summer. The great news is...as a cold front charges through on Thursday, temperatures will drop big time by Friday and especially for the weekend. With the good news, there is some bad news. As potent as this cold front may be, it will get squashed by a narrowing ridge. So, that much needed rainfall doesn't seem like it will materialize. However, a few areas could see a downpour. Again, the best chance for some rainfall would be Thursday night. Temperatures on Saturday may stay in the 70's. Louisville may also finally break there streak of 80's on Saturday. Besides all of this, there just isn't to much to talk about weather-wise. What does concern me is that after Thursday, chances for rain look very slim for several more days. I'll have more tomorrow! Everyone have a great night! :)

-Weather Forecaster Patrick Sumner